IF Boost Your Region Webinar Chaired by Harry Corbett
Intelligence Forums’ “Boost Your Region” virtual meeting on 3rd March 2022 was chaired by its founder Harry Corbett.
Our first speaker was Kieran Smith, MREC and CEO of Driver Require, (DR) an independent and specialist driver recruitment team, focussed exclusively on matching professional HGV & LGV drivers and clients.
Kieran said that driver demand has now returned to pre-pandemic levels. DR has managed peaks in demand by asking more overtime of drivers and offering improved wages and conditions. While there is currently no driver shortage, demand is seasonal and he expects shortages to return during the summer. He shared a series of slides which showed that since the COVID pandemic approx. 70,000 HGV drivers have left the UK’s workforce However:
the shortage not been caused by an exodus of EU drivers. In fact only 12,500 of those who left the workforce during the pandemic were from the EU.
EU drivers have not left primarily because of Brexit. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused most HGV drivers to quit. Many of the 77,000 who did were self-isolating or furloughed and may simply have realised that they preferred other options to driving to earn a living.
the shortage will not be solved by allowing EU drivers to work in the UK, but they could provide the flexibility to meet seasonal fluctuations. There is always a driver shortage in the later part of the year. Demand in H1 is generally 10-20% below average, increasing to 20% above average in H2, and up to 60% above average during the Christmas period. Brexit has removed an important flexibility to call on EU drivers to meet such variations. This may be more difficult in the future, particularly as Germany and Benelux pay more competitive wages and offer better working conditions. Attracting British HGV licence holders back to the driver workforce, or offering a “Seasonal Visa” to EU HGV drivers may offer some of the solution.
the ageing driver population has not had a significant incremental impact.Although there was a drop in drivers aged over 45 in Q1 2021, possibly due to anxiety about vaccination, many have returned as wages have improved.
The rate of retirement, however, has increased (from 7500 p.a. in 2010 to 10500 p.a. in 2020), but Kieran believes that this could easily be recovered by retaining more drivers. A significant reduction in the number of under 30 yr olds in the workforce is, however, a concern which will need to be addressed.
In the short term there must be a focus on attracting back some of the 330,000 HGV licence holders not currently driving. Of these 235,000 are below the age of 45. Wage inflation will help and there is already a trend towards offering greater compensation for antisocial hours and unattractive work.
In the medium term doubling the training capacity, as intended, will help solve the HGV driver shortage. However, there is unlikely to be any discernible improvement in capacity before the year end because additional HGV examiners and instructors will also have to be trained and new testing facilities established.
Kieran’s key message was however, that the shortage of HGV drivers derives from the pay and conditions which have been under enormous pressure from buyers for years.
Next to speak was Jo Hailey, co-Founder of Borrow My Garden (BMG), a professional photographer and CEO of Striking Places Photography Limited.
Jo told us that BMG was founded in 2019, when, asked by a friend to help her earn revenue from an event on her land, it became clear there was a gap in the market. Jo created a brochure for the planned event with her co-founder Claire Lee. Ultimately the event did not did not proceed but Jo and her client decided to use the brochure to advertise the availability of the land for other events. When Jo searched the internet she discovered that there was no central site upon which to post it – so set about building her own website.
All this happened pre-pandemic and, of course, during and after COVID, outside spaces were in high demand and BMG’s particular niche in the market was suddenly the place to be.
Her key proposition is that landowners incur significant costs for maintenance and upkeep, and BMG allows them to monetise their asset through others using it. BMG hosts details of land and spaces available for rent all across the country and Jo believes that this could expand to anywhere in the world.
The most popular spaces are gardens and uses range from weddings and young people’s birthday parties, to corporate events and …. naturist meetings!
Our next speaker, John Alderdice, is the former Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly (1998 – 2004), and MLA for East Belfast (1998 -2003) who, in 1996, was created a (Liberal Democrat) life peer as Baron Alderdice.
Lord Alderdice has been involved in almost every aspect of the Irish Peace Process. As Leader of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland from October 1987, he played a significant role in all the talks between the political parties and the British and Irish Governments on the resolution of the historic conflict in Ireland through to the negotiation of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.
During the NI peace process, Lord Alderdice recognised that a general view that resolution could be reached with the centrists in the conflict was flawed. “Not talking to the extremists” was not an option because if they disagreed with it, they could too easily sabotage any agreement. Negotiators had to recognise that no peace process could succeed without also engaging extremists.
The most significant breakthrough in the NI peace process, he said, was the recognition that the conflict was not principally about the border, nor the conflict of allegiances, but a reflection of disturbed historic relationships between
Protestant Unionists and Catholic Nationalists in the North;
the people of the island, North and South; and
Britain and Ireland.
A three-stranded process of reconciliation was therefore constructed to address those three sets of relationships. As long as negotiators focussed on them progress was possible.
He told us that people outside the process thought that the objective was to come to an “agreement”. In truth, however, the process was principally about learning and agreeing how to live with differences. Even though negotiators often reached the point of siding with one side or another they recognised the imperative of not doing so.
Economic difficulties, he told us, are not the principal drivers of disagreement. They are generally:
Humiliation or disrespect by one community of another;
Unfairness and the inability to resolve this through democracy.
For example, he said, an economic solution to remedy inequality between rich and poor would be to provide good education to the poor - the expectation being to expand opportunities and improve their status and quality of life. Any solution, however, must actually remedy disparity, so if improved education doesn’t result in jobs then violence may be the end result. And this was part of the historic problem in NI. Not only were the Civil Rights movement involved in the NI troubles in the 1960’s but also young Catholic students who reached the end of their tertiary education. They had discovered that despite their qualifications there were no jobs and no improvement in their quality of life, and this itself led to violence.
Membership of the EU brought both communities into a common space and the border disappeared, which helped to deliver the peace treaty. Brexit, however, has taken these benefits away, and he believes that Unionists Brexiteers, actually did something that has disadvantaged themselves. People in the rest of the UK, now seem detached from the Unionists who he believes will increasingly look towards the Republic and the EU.
Lord Alderdice was asked his thoughts on the war that Russia is now waging in Ukraine. He noted that there is an enmity between the two nations that precedes that Soviet era, and an element of Russian Orthodox and Catholic religion involved. However he said that there are also new dynamics:
Putin has a recent history of unchecked violence in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Syria and Crimea
He will not engage in negotiation while he thinks he will “get away with it” and “win”
The war will continue until Putin reaches a point where he recognises that he cannot win.
Lord Alderdice told that it was only once Martin McGuinness had recognised that neither the IRA nor the British would ever “win” the NI conflict that the IRA concluded that there was no point in any more people dying for the cause.
Lord Alderdice was asked whether ethnic differences betweenUkrainians and Russians has been a contributory factor in the war. His belief is that we often focus on ethnicity because this is observable, but cultural and identity differences were the issue in the NI conflict, and he believes this to be the case between Russia and Ukraine.
Our next speaker was Alan Winters CB , Professor of Economics and a Fellow and Founding Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory in the University of Sussex.
Alan is a leading contributor to the debate on the UK's post-Brexit trade policy. He reminded us that international trade policy only became of interest six years ago as a consequence of Brexit. After 40 years in the EU, the UK had not expertise in the formation of trade policy. Now there is now a huge relatively inexperienced government department focused on bilateral trade agreements. This, he believes, is somewhat myopic. The government highlights its achievements to date as
Signed Continuity Agreements: 67 of 70 required have been completed, but this has created no additional benefit to the UK because they are simply rollovers of existing trade agreements.
Signed Japanese Agreement: the EU was already very close to signing one itself so in reality this provides no huge marginal benefit to the UK.
Signed the Australian and New Zealand Agreements: These were started from scratch and hailed by the government as a success. However, these are very small economies – the Australian agreement is expected increase UK GDP by 0.08% after 15 years and that with New Zealand by 0.03% after 15 years.
Achieved second 'market access' phase of negotiations with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). However joining the CTPPP Pacific transpacific will only reduce trade barriers on 0.4% of trade.
Alan contended that while the UK is “hung up” on the delivery of bilateral trade agreements, those signed to date have not really got us much further forward. He believes that now we are a relatively small player we should focus on multilateral agreements.
He expressed a further concern that because trade agreements are signed under a royal prerogative they are only ratified by parliament but never subject to proper debate and scrutiny. Nor do MPs have powers to scrutinise ongoing negotiations and provide direction. Trade agreements are never rejected by parliament so become law without proper scrutiny. Trade agreements have a huge impact on many areas of life including jobs, the environment, and health and food standards, and may thereby introduce changes in legislation by the back door.
He noted the best models for trade agreements are those between neighbouring countries.For example, France and Germany have a very strong relationship; Australia and New Zealand, a pretty good relationship; and NAFTA has had a big effect in North America.
Ultimately he believes that the UK should be more sensible about Europe! It’s all about being a member of a gang, he said, and our only hope is to breathe life into multilateral agreements!
Steve Knowles, the Founder and Chairman of Knowles Warwick, a firm of business advisors and Chartered Accountants based in Sheffield, spoke next. He has built and steered the business through 35 years of ups and downs, to the successful position that it is in today.
Steve came into accountancy as a teenager, when he helped his mother to run her business. This, he said, really made a difference to his approach. At the age of 20, he won his first client, and he subsequently set up his own practise in 1985. Since then his business has survived a number of recessions, during which, when clients have been in financial difficulties he has stood by them and helped them to navigate through them. This has resulted in a loyal client base.
The vast majority of accountants are bean counters, he said, and he puts his success down to providing holistic support to his clients. Steve’s believes that his loyalty to and support for his clients has been more effective and cheaper than marketing.
He is a registered auditor, and suggested that we have lost sight of the fact that the auditor’s role is one of a “watchdog”, while the expectation of the general public, is increasingly that and auditor should be a “bloodhound”. As a result, auditors are increasingly being held to account where companies have failed. He reminded us that it is the directors who have the final responsibility for ensuring that the accounts of a company are accurate. The auditor provides an opinion that the accounts give a true and fair view of the company and its operations.